Posts

Somalia: America’s Next “Afghanistan?”

Source: 1945.com | Edward Chang On March 3, 1994, the United States military accomplished what has become unthinkable today – complete a total withdrawal from an ongoing conflict. After the political fiasco wrought by the Battle of Mogadishu on October 3 the year prior – immortalized in the book and motion picture adaptation Black Hawk Down – […]

China Has Been Spying on the African Union Headquarters

Beijing has gone out of its way to gain information on African leaders in order to compel and coerce them into supporting China’s international goals. Source: National Interest | Joshua Meservey Last week, a report emerged that hackers, probably from China, had been filching security camera footage from inside the African Union headquarters building in Ethiopia. Several years […]

The Future of Warfare in 2030

Source: RAND research Overview Who will the United States fight against and who will fight with it? Where will these future conflicts be fought? What will future conflicts look like? How will they be fought? And why will the United States go to war? This report is the overview in a series that draws on […]

The Potential Impact Of Us Troop Withdrawal For The Future Of Somalia

The decision of the outgoing Trump administration to pull out US troops from Somalia by 15 January has come at a particularly critical period for the East African region. This could have broader security and humanitarian implications, threatening the progress of the past decade and leaving the country exposed to the influence of regional actors.  Source: […]

Why Ethiopia and Sudan have fallen out over al-Fashaga

Source: BBC | Alex de Waal, African Analyst   The armed clashes along the border between Sudan and Ethiopia are the latest twist in a decades-old history of rivalry between the two countries, though it is rare for the two armies to fight one another directly over territory. The immediate issue is a disputed area […]

US businessmen are close to exploiting Ethiopia’s oil plans in a multibillion-dollar scheme

Source: Quartz Africa | By Zecharias Zelalm An Ethiopian-American investor and his partners are on the brink of pulling off an elaborate scheme that may unfairly take advantage of Ethiopia’s long-held ambitions to build its own oil & gas industry and become energy independent. Nebiyu Getachew, 48, chief executive of GreenComm Technologies, a Virginia-based energy […]

Geopolitical dynamics in the Horn of Africa

An Emboldened Horn of Africa Axis and an Unfolding Humanitarian Crisis Await the Biden Administration By Guled Ahmed | Middle East Institute Summary The Biden Administration is set to face a series of challenges in the Horn of Africa. Given growing Russian and Chinese involvement in this strategically important region, U.S. policymakers should be attuned to […]

Statement on Ethiopia by the Senior Study Group on Peace and Security in the Red Sea Arena

Source: USIP As members of the bipartisan senior study group on peace and security in the Red Sea arena, we are watching with grave concern the situation in Ethiopia. While many of the facts remain unclear, the risks of escalation are certain: Intrastate or interstate conflict would be catastrophic for Ethiopia’s people and for the region and […]

“America First” and Implications for US Strategy in the Horn of Africa

Source: Small Wars | Richard McManamon Abstract Since taking office, President Trump has challenged the global order with his “America First” approach. He has questioned the role of the US and its Allies within NATO, exited the Paris Climate Accord, and entered into a trade battle with China. At the same time, the Trump administration […]

What Ethiopia’s Brewing Conflict Means for the Country—and the Region

Source: Small Wars | Aly Verjee and Susan Stigant | USIP Publication A protracted conflict between the federal government and the Tigray region is still not inevitable, but it will require both sides to choose another path. Violent conflict between the federal government of Ethiopia and the federal state of Tigray, in the country’s north, […]