Ethiopia’s Tipping Point

The Amhara Crisis

In an OP-ED for Eurasia Review Graham Peebles, contends that the Amhara people are facing persecution and violence from the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF), Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), and Oromo Special Forces (OSF), seemingly with government approval.

Peebles highlights ethnic cleansing in Oromia fueled by the OLF’s goal to create an independent Oromo nation. The Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) has been deployed in the Amhara region to disarm and dissolve the Amhara Special Forces (ASF), leaving the region vulnerable to attacks, Peebles asserts.

Peebles points out that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party, influenced by OLF/OLA ideology, appears to be allowing a genocide to take place. The international community has remained mostly silent, with no foreign powers openly demanding a halt to the violence.

READ ALSO: Thousands of Tigrayans Displaced Despite Ceasefire

Ethiopia on the Brink: Corrective Measures Needed to Prevent Collapse

Similary, in his OP-ED for Eurasia Review, Aklog Birara (Ph.D.) discusses the potential collapse of Ethiopia due to divisive policies and actions by the Oromo Prosperity Party, which dominates the government. Birara highlights the damages caused to Ethiopia’s national unity by the Orommumma project and the government’s discriminatory policy against the Amhara people.

Birara points out the Ethiopian Parliament’s decision to lift the terrorist designation of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), attributing the decision to US pressure. He believes this decision will further increase the risk of sectarianism and civil war in the country.

Birara highlights Ethiopia’s sovereignty and national security are threatened by acquiescence to US demands. He urges for corrective measures and open dialogue among stakeholders to prevent the collapse of Ethiopia and to maintain stability on the African continent.

Ethiopia’s Struggle with Proliferation of Armed Groups

Ethiopia is facing an increase in armed groups following the 2018 transition of power, as many factions continue to engage in conflict despite the rise of the Prosperity Party. These groups are typically split between a peaceful political wing and a military arm.

The Ethiopian government has been negotiating with multiple armed forces present in at least seven regional states, but political consensus remains in disarray.

The National Rehabilitation Commission (NRC) is preparing to rehabilitate and reintegrate armed group members who agree to disarm and cooperate, but the political divisions that underpin the issue remain unresolved. Read more at The Reporter.

READ ALSO: Ethiopian Disarmament Plan Ignites Protests and Deadly Clashes in Amhara