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... There are emerging fears that all the gains made five years ago could soon be lost. At the center of these concerns is Ethiopia's quest to have access to a port on the Red Sea, specifically the port of Assab. It's located in Eritrea, which was part of Ethiopia until it gained independence more than 30 years ago. ...
"The Red Sea and the Nile will determine Ethiopia. They are interlinked with Ethiopia and will be the fundamentals that will either bring in Ethiopia's development or bring about its demise," Abiy Ahmed said last month during a televised speech to Ethiopian lawmakers.
Estifanos Afeworki, an Eritrean diplomat and the country's ambassador to Japan, was even more explicit, saying his country would always defend its territory.
"There is no if and but about Eritrea's sovereignty and territorial integrity. No amount of illegitimate instigation, propaganda, conspiracy, and defamation can change this truth," he wrote on X, formerly Twitter, on October 12 — even before Abiy's address to parliament.
Despite the rhetoric, several factors may still deter Ethiopia and Eritrea from escalating their conflict to a full-scale war. The Ethiopian army is bogged down in the Amhara region and is still recovering from the war in Tigray. The Eritrean military also lost many troops in the last war and would unlikely want to confront a well-resourced Ethiopian army under the leadership of experienced Tigrayan commanders.
On the other hand, a tit-for-tat escalation and a strategic culture characterized by deep suspicion may lead one of the parties to conduct a pre-emptive strike that escalates to a full-blown war. Moreover, beyond rhetoric, there are also indications of practical preparations for war. This includes increased shipments of weapons from the UAE and the export of new drones from Turkey to Ethiopia. Increased mobilization of troops on both sides of the border has also been reported. Both the Ethiopian and Eritrean governments have also been busy trying to appeal for the support of local leaders from the Afar people who reside on both sides of the common border.
In an exclusive interview with ENA, AAU's President, Samuel Kifle said that Ethiopia’s quest for access to international sea and ports is a life-long question in its history, civilization, nation formation and state building.
The historically fraught relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea is deteriorating once again. A seemingly momentous peace deal that brought the two sides together in 2018 now appears to have been a brief interlude in a longer arc of enduring rivalry. The sources of recent tension include Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s public posturing around sea access and dynamics seeded by the 2018 peace deal itself. Neither side can afford escalation, but open conflict remains a possibility and even outcomes well short of direct hostilities — perhaps a return to the “no war, no peace” situation of preceding decades — would be disastrous for the two nations and the broader region.
Concerned international actors should act urgently to deescalate tensions between Abiy and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki; but over the longer term only a transparent, inclusive and well-institutionalized framework for Ethiopia-Eritrea ties can deliver sustainable peace.
Hi @ZaraYaqob , indeed it is confusing time. The prospect doesn't look good for Ethiopia. It is already losing in the diplomatic front. EU is the first international body to denounce the agreement. Egypt is lending its support to Somalia as expected. IGAD is concerned. You may like the storyline Here
