The First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine
Compiled According to Clinical Experience
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COVID19 Research Papers and Reports
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Handbook of COVID-19 Prevention and Treatment
The First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine
Compiled According to Clinical Experience
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The First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine
Compiled According to Clinical Experience
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On 31 December 2019, WHO was informed of a cluster of cases of pneumonia of unknown cause detected in Wuhan City, Hubei Province of China. The coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) was identified as the causative virus by Chinese authorities on 7 January. As part of WHO’s response to the outbreak, the R&D Blueprint has been activated to accelerate diagnostics, vaccines and therapeutics for this novel coronavirus. R&D Blueprint
Also important infographics by WHO at Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) Situation Dashboard.
Alternative up-to-date dashboard by WorldoMeter at COVID-19 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC.
Also important infographics by WHO at Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) Situation Dashboard.
Alternative up-to-date dashboard by WorldoMeter at COVID-19 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC.
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COVID-19 tracking map by John Hopkins university in coolaboration with ESRI/ArcGIS dashboard.
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The economic impact of coronavirus: analysis from Imperial experts
Academics and researchers from Imperial College Business School have offered reactions and analysis of the impact of coronavirus on business and the economy, as well as the responses of governments and central banks.
Academics and researchers from Imperial College Business School have offered reactions and analysis of the impact of coronavirus on business and the economy, as well as the responses of governments and central banks.
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Norway to increase support for vaccine development by NOK 2.2 billion(27 March 2020)
Norway is to increase its support for the work to develop vaccines against the virus that has caused the current Covid-19 pandemic and against future epidemics by NOK 2.2 billion.
Timeline: News from Norwegian Ministries about the Coronavirus disease COVID-19
Norway is to increase its support for the work to develop vaccines against the virus that has caused the current Covid-19 pandemic and against future epidemics by NOK 2.2 billion.
Timeline: News from Norwegian Ministries about the Coronavirus disease COVID-19
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Free COVID-19 online course re-launches to learners worldwide
Imperial researchers and Coursera have partnered to offer a free Massively Open Online Course explaining the science behind coronavirus.
Imperial researchers and Coursera have partnered to offer a free Massively Open Online Course explaining the science behind coronavirus.
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Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team
Report 13: Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries
Summary
Following the emergence of a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and its spread outside of China, Europe
is now experiencing large epidemics. In response, many European countries have implemented
unprecedented non-pharmaceutical interventions including case isolation, the closure of schools and
universities, banning of mass gatherings and/or public events, and most recently, widescale social
distancing including local and national lockdowns.
In this report, we use a semi-mechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model to attempt to infer the impact
of these interventions across 11 European countries. Our methods assume that changes in the
reproductive number – a measure of transmission - are an immediate response to these interventions
being implemented rather than broader gradual changes in behaviour. Our model estimates these
changes by calculating backwards from the deaths observed over time to estimate transmission that
occurred several weeks prior, allowing for the time lag between infection and death.
One of the key assumptions of the model is that each intervention has the same effect on the
reproduction number across countries and over time. This allows us to leverage a greater amount of
data across Europe to estimate these effects. It also means that our results are driven strongly by the
data from countries with more advanced epidemics, and earlier interventions, such as Italy and Spain.
We find that the slowing growth in daily reported deaths in Italy is consistent with a significant impact
of interventions implemented several weeks earlier. In Italy, we estimate that the effective
reproduction number, Rt, dropped to close to 1 around the time of lockdown (11th March), although
with a high level of uncertainty.
Overall, we estimate that countries have managed to reduce their reproduction number. Our
estimates have wide credible intervals and contain 1 for countries that have implemented all
interventions considered in our analysis. This means that the reproduction number may be above or
below this value. With current interventions remaining in place to at least the end of March, we
estimate that interventions across all 11 countries will have averted 59,000 deaths up to 31 March
[95% credible interval 21,000-120,000]. Many more deaths will be averted through ensuring that
interventions remain in place until transmission drops to low levels. We estimate that, across all 11
countries between 7 and 43 million individuals have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 up to 28th March,
representing between 1.88% and 11.43% of the population. The proportion of the population infected
to date – the attack rate - is estimated to be highest in Spain followed by Italy and lowest in Germany
and Norway, reflecting the relative stages of the epidemics.
Given the lag of 2-3 weeks between when transmission changes occur and when their impact can be
observed in trends in mortality, for most of the countries considered here it remains too early to be
certain that recent interventions have been effective. If interventions in countries at earlier stages of
their epidemic, such as Germany or the UK, are more or less effective than they were in the countries
with advanced epidemics, on which our estimates are largely based, or if interventions have improved
or worsened over time, then our estimates of the reproduction number and deaths averted would
change accordingly. It is therefore critical that the current interventions remain in place and trends in
cases and deaths are closely monitored in the coming days and weeks to provide reassurance that
transmission of SARS-Cov-2 is slowing.
(Download Report 13)
Report 13: Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries
Summary
Following the emergence of a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and its spread outside of China, Europe
is now experiencing large epidemics. In response, many European countries have implemented
unprecedented non-pharmaceutical interventions including case isolation, the closure of schools and
universities, banning of mass gatherings and/or public events, and most recently, widescale social
distancing including local and national lockdowns.
In this report, we use a semi-mechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model to attempt to infer the impact
of these interventions across 11 European countries. Our methods assume that changes in the
reproductive number – a measure of transmission - are an immediate response to these interventions
being implemented rather than broader gradual changes in behaviour. Our model estimates these
changes by calculating backwards from the deaths observed over time to estimate transmission that
occurred several weeks prior, allowing for the time lag between infection and death.
One of the key assumptions of the model is that each intervention has the same effect on the
reproduction number across countries and over time. This allows us to leverage a greater amount of
data across Europe to estimate these effects. It also means that our results are driven strongly by the
data from countries with more advanced epidemics, and earlier interventions, such as Italy and Spain.
We find that the slowing growth in daily reported deaths in Italy is consistent with a significant impact
of interventions implemented several weeks earlier. In Italy, we estimate that the effective
reproduction number, Rt, dropped to close to 1 around the time of lockdown (11th March), although
with a high level of uncertainty.
Overall, we estimate that countries have managed to reduce their reproduction number. Our
estimates have wide credible intervals and contain 1 for countries that have implemented all
interventions considered in our analysis. This means that the reproduction number may be above or
below this value. With current interventions remaining in place to at least the end of March, we
estimate that interventions across all 11 countries will have averted 59,000 deaths up to 31 March
[95% credible interval 21,000-120,000]. Many more deaths will be averted through ensuring that
interventions remain in place until transmission drops to low levels. We estimate that, across all 11
countries between 7 and 43 million individuals have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 up to 28th March,
representing between 1.88% and 11.43% of the population. The proportion of the population infected
to date – the attack rate - is estimated to be highest in Spain followed by Italy and lowest in Germany
and Norway, reflecting the relative stages of the epidemics.
Given the lag of 2-3 weeks between when transmission changes occur and when their impact can be
observed in trends in mortality, for most of the countries considered here it remains too early to be
certain that recent interventions have been effective. If interventions in countries at earlier stages of
their epidemic, such as Germany or the UK, are more or less effective than they were in the countries
with advanced epidemics, on which our estimates are largely based, or if interventions have improved
or worsened over time, then our estimates of the reproduction number and deaths averted would
change accordingly. It is therefore critical that the current interventions remain in place and trends in
cases and deaths are closely monitored in the coming days and weeks to provide reassurance that
transmission of SARS-Cov-2 is slowing.
(Download Report 13)