In the current absence of vaccines and effective drug treatments, there are several public health measures countries can take to help slow the spread of the COVID-19. The team focused on the impact of five such measures, alone and in combination:
In the first scenario, they show that interventions could slow down the spread of the infection but would not completely interrupt its spread. They found this would reduce the demand on the healthcare system while protecting those most at risk of severe disease. Such epidemics are predicted to peak over a three to four-month period during the spring/summer.Home isolation of cases – whereby those with symptoms of the disease (cough and/or fever) remain at home for 7 days following the onset of symptoms
Home quarantine – whereby all household members of those with symptoms of the disease remain at home for 14 days following the onset of symptoms
Social distancing – a broad policy that aims to reduce overall contacts that people make outside the household, school or workplace by three-quarters.
Social distancing of those over 70 years – as for social distancing but just for those over 70 years of age who are at highest risk of severe disease
Closure of schools and universities
Modelling available data, the team found that depending on the intensity of the interventions, combinations would result in one of two scenarios.
In the second scenario, more intensive interventions could interrupt transmission and reduce case numbers to low levels. However, once these interventions are relaxed, case numbers are predicted to rise. This gives rise to lower case numbers, but the risk of a later epidemic in the winter months unless the interventions can be sustained.
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